Stranded in Portugal

So, first night, big stuff!

I think the common thread and ~theme~ amongst the second chance players is that they all want this terribly bad. And for that reason, I really want them to succeed in a big way. I want them all to have the experience that they desperately wanted. Unfortunately... not everyone can have that.

I do think we will get to see some people living that out though. The biggest one probably right now is Coby. I mean... how can you not read his opening blog and it not break your heart. I mean, it definitely made me feel like a piece of shit and regret not having him back sooner. But that's the nature of the beast. Sometimes you have to go with the best story line and until now, that wasn't him. Fortunately for Coby, that means that now his storyline is probably the biggest of anyones. Stranded's crazy obsessed superfan that everyone loves... finally after five fucking years getting to come back and prove his worth. I'm dying to see what he does here.

Really happy to see everyone finally showed up, had some doubts about semhar/ciera but really hoping they do good things in this game because I know they have the potential and that's really what second chances is all about, giving people the opportunity to live up to their potential.


A similar story is one with Ryan the Rat. The difference is that he's not as devoted as Coby is I don't think. He said it was kind of a bad time, but he's wanted to play for so long that he just went with it.

No inactives <3 Thanks be.

I kind of expected there not to be, since part of the twist sees you not just responsible for your own game, but you are playing for your pal too. But reading around, I am thinking not everyone is as close as we'd like? Did y'all hook Katie & Coby up, and Vytas & Cochran just for the game? They are ties that could be broken easily in that case.

Vytas makes a very astute observation that John seems new, therefore John is probably a RL friend of whoever. And therefore, that is the type of partnership you want to be breaking up sooner rather than later. Fair enough, I see the sense. But that's the kind of thing that'll bite you later too. If Ralph is still around he'll bear a grudge for ending his friend's game in a way that Cochran won't care if Vytas got the boot.

right but who are you gonna take to F6 with you when you are choosing between 'allies'? Your IRL friend or some random on the internet?

Brenda Lowe wrote:No inactives <3 Thanks be.

I kind of expected there not to be, since part of the twist sees you not just responsible for your own game, but you are playing for your pal too. But reading around, I am thinking not everyone is as close as we'd like? Did y'all hook Katie & Coby up, and Vytas & Cochran just for the game? They are ties that could be broken easily in that case.

Vytas makes a very astute observation that John seems new, therefore John is probably a RL friend of whoever. And therefore, that is the type of partnership you want to be breaking up sooner rather than later. Fair enough, I see the sense. But that's the kind of thing that'll bite you later too. If Ralph is still around he'll bear a grudge for ending his friend's game in a way that Cochran won't care if Vytas got the boot.

Katie and Coby, yes... but they knew eachother before. Vytas wanted to play with Cochran over Semhar.

Vytas hosted Cochran in EuroStranded 3 so knows him to some extent. Semhar is a total stranger to him.

Ok, so have sifted through the cross-tribe PMs at this board (kinda dreading tackling either tribe board yet tbh). Vytas for all his talk of taking it ham'n'cheesy seems to be working them the hardest, lots of chunky PMs with Cochran, and lots of banter with Caryn. Cochran too is working both sides - with Vytas obviously but with Katie too. She wants to try set up a six with her & Coch at the middle, plus their ties on the other tribes. Which would mean Vytas, Coby, and eventually Caryn & Hayden although they've not shared that much yet. Nice plan except, everyone is in the same situation :P Hayden for example will want to tack Sem onto that. Sem will want Brad and so on. That chains gotta break somewhere along the line.

Apart from that, a lot of banter and good lucks. Rachel & KimP stick out as a talisman pair that could bond well, as do Ralph & Shawn. Ibe & Marissa show signs but they are only three PMs deep.

As for the bloodties, I do hope they do all their communicating at the board and not elsewhere. For documentation later if nothing else. Can't tell much from PMs here alone since they have past relationships. Cochran & Vytas are the most obvious pair that ought do well. Followed by Ibe & Rachel I think? Not much in PMs about those two but they're both settling in just the right amount. And of course, Laura & Becky will do well.

Brenda Lowe wrote:Ok, so have sifted through the cross-tribe PMs at this board (kinda dreading tackling either tribe board yet tbh). Vytas for all his talk of taking it ham'n'cheesy seems to be working them the hardest, lots of chunky PMs with Cochran, and lots of banter with Caryn. Cochran too is working both sides - with Vytas obviously but with Katie too. She wants to try set up a six with her & Coch at the middle, plus their ties on the other tribes. Which would mean Vytas, Coby, and eventually Caryn & Hayden although they've not shared that much yet. Nice plan except, everyone is in the same situation :P Hayden for example will want to tack Sem onto that. Sem will want Brad and so on. That chains gotta break somewhere along the line.

Apart from that, a lot of banter and good lucks. Rachel & KimP stick out as a talisman pair that could bond well, as do Ralph & Shawn. Ibe & Marissa show signs but they are only three PMs deep.

As for the bloodties, I do hope they do all their communicating at the board and not elsewhere. For documentation later if nothing else. Can't tell much from PMs here alone since they have past relationships. Cochran & Vytas are the most obvious pair that ought do well. Followed by Ibe & Rachel I think? Not much in PMs about those two but they're both settling in just the right amount. And of course, Laura & Becky will do well.

The fate of a lot of the pairs is going to come down to the swap.

It'll be interesting I think if some people end up without their friends but with tehir talisman partenrs on their new tribes. Could lead to some shifting in allegiances towards their talisman partners and against their IRL friends.

I honestly can not wait until the Final 18 swap in to three different tribes. I feel like that is going to shake up the game so much more than just a standard player mix-up would, and introducing an entire new tribe in to the mix is incredible.

I hate playing on a tribe of six, there's just no leeway. And especially if you are coming from a fat tribe of ten to suddenly six. All your challenge wins for naught.

But watching it, that I will enjoy.

Three tribes of six = greater chance of immunity tho. Plus less people to message, which personally I prefer. :P

Either way it's definitely a completely different dynamic to the two tribe format they're starting with, so it'll change the game up one way or another.

Becky - 35
Caryn - 39
Coby - 22
Cochran - 64
Ralph - 48
Ryan S - 12
Semhar - 57
Ibrehem - 18
Peter - 36
Kim P - 55

Alright so these are some PM stats of the people on Limici (only the limici board). Those are the total number of PMs they've sent. Interesting to see Semhar coming in late and already having the second highest number of PMs. But then again, it's not the quantity that matters.

Kim is coming out of the blocks pretty aggressively from the sounds of it. She seems a bit overexcited this early on with all her deals, kinda reminds me of Kristina last season.

I think I'll hold off on predicting groupings too soon, they'll all get fooked by the shuffle irregardless. Right now all we really need to worry for is who is most in trouble if their tribe goes to TC twice.

Over on Limici I fear the most for Ryan, Peter & Caryn right now. This is more from confessionals than PMs since I've barely skimmed theirs. Ryan seems to be aware that he's not as "in" as he ought to be so there is some hope there. He can be too patient sometimes. I think a dose of impatience while he gets into some webs might do him a world of good. Be patient later lol. Caryn and Peter both should be safe in theory, but Caryn is doing both of them no favours and I can see it blowing up quickly. KimP has a wide-on to see her gone too. KimP is spunkier than I remembered, and if they have an early boot and everyone else is pussyfooting around - that might be the push that the tribe needs.

One good chunky Becky confessional might open up that tribe. She is safe as houses, I assume Sem ought to be too. Her plus Ralph & Cochran have that Season bond going on (at least the guys are tight from it) and unless there is a push to break that up, I think it'll carry all three to the shuffle with ease. Someone mentioned Ibe as a potential boot (Cochran?) but I think that was more a hangover from his later arrival than the rest. He'll pick it up in no time. I can't see KimP or Coby going anywhere yet - not unless they had four or five boots in a row which can't happen.


On Bracari I fear most for Brad, John & Laura in order. Imma go read all their PMs so will hold off for solid opinions, but what I gather so far is that Vytas, Marissa, Katie will form some kind of core. Shawn seems to be in in the right places, and each of Rachel & Hayden have made enough good impressions without being a big cog in anything. Meanwhile Laura is making a bad impression on a fair few, and Brad's one line PMs can't be doing him any favours. And who is John? I will find out. Ciera maybe could be added to this list, but I think that's more being a little late than anything else has her not mentioned much.

I also just saw this thread. I will probably have nothing to add here because literally all I have time to check is the Returners (and at that, I'm only checking the ones I like) so yeah. But please do post lots of stuff in here. I hate that I'm missing most of this season.

Semhar wrote:Kim - HMMM, former tribe leader turned into uberthreat immediately at merge? Sounds like returnee material. Voted out for being likable, as well as being 'cacique' or tribe leader. She'll probably be more subtle this time, lessons learned. Threat in my eyes, but also nice enough and I'm sure I'll stick with her so that she regains her threat level persona.

So Semhar is looking up information on the returnees and has confused Kimpy with Kim J This stuff is so hilarious.

Semhar wrote:Coby - ALL I GOT WAS THAT HE'S CREEPY!!!!

Semhar wrote:Peter - He's a god apparently, but I feel like it's in the joking sense. Like, he was so ungodly, that he's a god. If I'm wrong, then praise Peter, please don't smite me to hell

By the way, Ralph is being his adorable self again and people are drawn to him. Let's hope he doesn't get drunk and fucks everything up like the Namibia merge.

I'm officially invested in Skinny Ryan as an underdog that needs to survive.

Limici Confessional Lap.

Caryn, Cochran, Kim, Peter, Becky, & Ibe seems to be the majority forming, but not all that six want to necessarily stick to that.

Kim likes the Cochran/Becky/Peter parts of that but not really the rest.

Cochran reckons he'll stick to the six but at the same time is cultivating a backup/placebo of Coch/Peter/Ralph/Sem/Ryan, which would put Cochran & Peter straddling two alliances. Can Peter handle that? idk He hasn't confessed much so idk where his heart really lies. I get the impression he's actually closest to Caryn rather than Cochran.

Who knows what exactly Caryn wants, but I think she'd stick to that six for a boot or two till she gets bored (or the shuffle kicks in?)

Becky seems to not want this alliance at all. Or at least, she doesn't want to ally with both Caryn and Peter - too much crazy for one alliance. And she's right too, but idk if she'll do anything about it yet. I imagine she'll not rock the boat too early unless she has something more solid to go with elsewhere. Conventional org wisdom says don't make a power move too early. Sod that, make a power move now and gain control of the tribe for the rest of the game. But even if she does nothing, she is safe, so why risk making herself a target for big risk/little reward? Her call..

As an aside, Becky also doesn't know that Ryan is madhack. I don't know if that changes anything but it's interesting. I would have thought that's the first person she'd know. And Ryan is in no rush to reveal it either (although I don't expect he knows she doesn't know, it's just an elephant in the corner).

Ryan himself seems to be making slow progress. His name & Coby's are still the two popping up most. But he's connecting with Coby, Ralph, Becky, kinda Cochran, Ibe a little too. If he could actually get all that together, that would be a realistic alternative to the current majority.

Ibe I think is just happy to have an in. He has yet to share real opinions on that alliance, but from talk elsewhere I feel like he's bottom of that six, and even seems to have better connections with people outside of it? I could see him abandoning ship pretty easily if something palpably better arises.

Coby I think is the person most in danger from that alliance. Him or Ryan (or both if they lost twice and the alliance held that long). He needs to drop a good update so we can figure out things from his point of view.

Ralph is doing his thing and is endeared to most. Yet he's also not in that six. But I think he's safe till shuffle whether or not that alliance holds.

Sem is a bit of a mystery. She's not included in that six when connection-wise, you'd think she'd be a better fit than half of them. She gets on with the people in it and not so much with the people out of it. So I can't see her being part of an anti-that alliance, but at the same time she's not included in it either. So she's a lone wolf right now.


idk what I want to see happen over here. I get the feeling the people in that six that want out will just go with the flow and we won't see that broken up before the shuffle. Which is bad news for Coby or Ryan should the vets lose one of the first two. The good news is that odds are they will win both the first two challenges. Hopefully one of the outliers lets slip, and we can get some drama over their without an actual vote which would leave them all primed for more drama come the shuffle. There's a noob or two we could lose without much heartache, but I don't want any vets leaving just yet.

Finally dipping my toe in PMs for that tribe now.

Cochran is setting himself up for a fall. If they lose. If they win he'll be grand with two alliances having his back regardless of how the shuffle breaks. But as of right now he's in that six of him/Peter/Becky/Kim/Caryn/Ibe, but at the same time, he is plotting hardcore with Ralph for an alternative alliance that could include any or all of Ibe/Ryan/Coby/Sem/Peter. So yeah, that is the entire tribe in two alliances - he's gonna have to burn one or the other of them immediately should they lose a challenge.

And the more I read here, the more I feel like the three old-schoolers in Coby/Ryan/Becky will get together. Ralph is making big noises to Cochran about how those two are his next faves after Coch himself, so there's going to be a ton of pressure on him to not boot either of those. And then there's Ibe & Becky talking about how uncomfortable they are with that six. An early boot here, and I could see those all linking up somehow and the vote flipping onto Caryn or Peter by the end of it.

As an aside here, it's interesting to see the longest PMs (with paragraphs and such) come from the ORGY players - i.e. Becky & Ryan. Plus Coby to an extent. Does that make it an old-school thing?

The Top 3 on Limici:

Becky-Playing so far one of the strongest games of them all. She seems to be in a good position with everyone on the tribe. Looking at her PMs, you can tell that she is one of the people that is putting in the most amount of effort to everyone and it is being noticed in a very positive way. It seems like she has a good relationship with Ibrehem for sure, and I think if she has it her way she will end up going far with him and also possibly Caryn as well. She seems to like Cochran as well, and wants Peter out. Her pull in the tribe can be seen by the first boot most likely being Peter, who SHE wants out the most.

Cochran-Playing a similar game at first glance to the one he played in Namibia, but he is someone that is trying to improve after his first time playing. It clearly is working, since he is in a good position and nobody wants him out anytime soon. Ralph seems to like him, and if he ends up meeting up with Vytas then he will be in a very good place in the game and could possibly get a great and powerful Final 3 deal going. I think he's someone who is really critical of others as well, which could end up helping him make the choice of one to blindside people and when to keep them close to his side.

Caryn-Okay I'm putting Caryn here since she is not in DANGER of going home soon. She may be a nutjob and may not ever have a chance of winning this game, but right now she is in a spot where she won't be going home any time at the next tribal which can't be said for some of the others since it seems like the target keeps subtly flipping back and forth. She appears to be in an alliance with Peter, Kim P, Becky, Coch, and Ibrehem already. Even if that alliance does end up failing and Peter goes out first, she'll still remain in a relatively good place.

And then something needs to be said about Ibrehem as well! Once again JayJay comes in to a game slightly late, and already it seems like people have really forgotten about it and embraced him fully. It's GREAT to witness and I adore him already in here. I think he'll end up being a major contender to go far as long as he doesn't get too attached to Becky.