The Lowedown

[Brenda Lowe]

I am going to be here quite a bit for the first two weeks, and after that my activity will plummet. But make hay while the sun shines with some blogs! Cast assessments incoming which will be a little different this Season. Mostly because this is really my absolute first time looking at anyone new to me. Reading their apps literally as I type this post. There area lot of familiar faces here of course, even among the "noobs", but we'll get to them when we get to them. alol I just noticed there's three tribes I Have a lot to get my head around.

Aaaaaaaand now I see the third tribe only spices it up at F18, nvm :P

Lets do em in their BvW pairs I suppose.

Limici Tribe / Bracari Tribe


PushingJate & Krypton
(Becky & Ciera / Peter & Laura)

Alphabetically this is a good place to start, and also the duo I know the most about.

Laura being Krypton is lol I love Krypton from non-Stranded things, and this time last year I woulda told you he was gonna be the next big thing. Buuuuut since then he's been kind of.. erratic? More than half the time, he seems to play completely for funsies and just not targeting the win. Which is okay to do and understandable, but obviously makes predicting how well he'll do a bit tricky. He is coming in here straight off his first win, and could potentially be underrated due to rep. I just hope he doesn't take the rep and try to play into some kind of useless woe-is-me Laura schtick :/ A big part of the BvW twist is that you aren't just playing for yourself - Lauras not going to want to let Becky down and hopefully that keeps him from going kamikazee. I will say merge and 7thish place.

It's pretty hard to look past Becky as anything but an end-gamer. And if she has one big flaw it's just that - anyone who knows who it is behind the rep knows they should be scared of her. Glimpsing through the cast list she is probably the best in most challenges here. Maybe not Erinn level but still pretty damn hot. Vytas might give her a run in some but I don't see anyone else coming close to that pair in speed-based things. It's not just challenges either, Becky is a definitely a formidable social goddessa too.
Let's say fifth place goddess, taken out for being a threat as soon as some non-speed thing pops up and they actually can do something about it.

As for their partners, Peter & Laura are gonna be super fun to watch interact so long as he lasts a while. He ought to bring out her nutty side some. I am only reading Ciera's app right this moment, but I'd guess Becky will bring out the best in her.

***


TheOneSurvivor & shadow0knight
(Caryn & Vytas / Ralph & Shawn)

alol. These two are pals? Really? Good god. I know Shawn from a few games and he is the opposite of Caryn lol. He is just kinda, very competent all-round. Socially he knows what needs to be done and does it without being a big mover or shaker. Challenge wise he's solid but not astounding. He is a solid mid-pack player and I expect we'll see more of that. Although, every so often he will go off on one. Either something where he wants to get a super negative edgic or just do something crazy to spice up the game, and that happens more often with the right people pushing him. Peer pressure much? :P I will say solid mid finish here. 8th or 9th or so. And I'll also predict a big part of that is because Caryn leaves early His chances will actually decrease the longer she sticks around

As for Caryn herself. I just can't see her going far at all. She will be eager of course, and she will be probably a drama queen for the few rounds she lasts, but most people will just get sick of her quick unless she changes her tack drastically from her usual LL showings. maybe she links up early with say, Peter, Ralph, Semhar & Ryan and that kind of thing? But I doubt it. More than likely Becky is HBIC by the time they are booting someone, and having shared LLs before, Caryn will be first on the block. Prediction, first vet boot.

Caryn & Vytas Oh this is delicious. She will drive him nuts. Shawn and Ralph could make for compelling viewing later too.

***


sc15fan & trojansoldier
(Coby & Hayden / Cochran & Katie)

This is my first time getting to see Katie in the flesh. But from what I know of her from the Ausboard she is fun and competent, and on the downside, a little bit doofy and stubborn sometimes. So Katie is a good fit. Is she the only Aussie in the cast? That could hurt her a little. But I do know she'll spend long hours online and be dedicated. Just that they might not always be the right hours to be here. The timezone curse, I know it too well :/ Gamewise, I really have no clue. That she is pally with Coby of all people is kinda outta leftfield to me. He is waaay old-school and she is brand new. She is social, she is smart, she has a few games under her belt - she should do well just on that. Paired with Cochran who is Vytas' bloodtie, and she and Vytas have compatible personalities so I can see those two getting close. The more I write the more I feel like she'll go deep here, right to the end even. Let's say finalist but not the winner.

Coby. Wooow. Old-school like Ryan & Becky era? Pre-my time anyway I think I played with him once where he was kinda inactive. But I do know that he holds Stranded dear to him so there ought be no fear of that happening here. I wonder if he's so old-school he might get left behind if some kind of recent Season clique comes to power in the vets? I don't know here at all. Roll a die and let's say pre-merge boot but not too early either.

Katie & Cochran I can see going far, maybe even last pair standing with the goldilocks balance of not too strong and not too weak. Coby & Hayden I have no clue. omg no wait, reading Hayden's app here These two could either clash hard or become a right pair of snipey bitches together.

***


KenHoang & StrandedPete
(Cochran & Katie / Caryn & Vytas)

Vytas is pitch-perfect casting. That ought to allow him to be as evil mastermind as he likes to be, and hide it under a friendly exterior as he also likes to do :P He's done Euro-Stranded & Aussie-Stranded before, so welcome to the original biatch. It is hard to think this is only his third game. He won the Aussie one with what, all the votes? Although he will be humble and say it should have been less. I think every host here knows him in one fashion or another and if a winner comes from the noob side, it's hard to look past him. Him to be the male noob Becky and HBIC that tribe by this time tomorrow would be no surprise. I will say Jury for sure, and potential winner if they don't wise-up and take him out before 5. I kind of think they will though. He'll have some task to keep his threat level under wraps and I could see him being a merge target, or even a shuffle target if the numbers go wrong for him. Definitely one to watch, with the focus being on how he can handle the expectations and target. I kind of think Cochran leaving early before the immunity things come to factor in boots could be a really good thing for him, and even better for him than Cochran sticking around. idk idk. We'll see.

Cochran I'm not too excited to see back if I'm blunt. I wasn't overly invested in him last time but he seems to have done alright after I vanished. Still though, half a season watching him and I've literally no opinion on him can't be good for his entertainment chances here. I expect he'll do okay gamewise. iirc, last time his game was all about keeping his head down and just being social while others took the heat. Was there bad blood between he and Semhar by the end? That could be pure conjecture but hawt stuff if there was. I'll just predict on of the earlier vets to leave. Not as early as say Caryn or Peter, which would see him make the shuffle. Then maybe Vytas keeps him safe? idk, let's say 12th.

Caryn & Vytas lol. Cachran & Katie could be interesting (she is trojan yes?). I kind of think she will work that harder than he will, but it could be a long lasting middle-pack pair and maybe even one of the last standing as neither is too weak or too threatening. Potential immunity bracelets winners? Cochran would need to go further than my prediction if so :P



***


JayJayBlue & BowserBoy129
(Ibrehem & Marissa / Kim P & Rachel)

I think Rachel is a good match here for Bowser <3 Best things about Bowser is that he's very easy to get on with, and I think he could be twice as good a gamer as he is if he just focused on that and let the rest of his game fall into place based on that. Nevermind repping your character, nevermind even worrying about challenges or strategy. Just focus on making sure everyone on the tribe sees you as one of their top three friends/allies and you'll go far. Stop worrying about how you are playing and just play lol But that's not what typically happens him from what I see. He has a tendency to get very focused on little things and completely miss the much bigger more obvious picture staring him in the face. So if he can chill here and just go with the flow he can go deep, at least to merge. But I kind of expect he won't make it quite that far. Let's say merge boot.

I should know Ibe very well having followed his Season particularly closely. But if any one players game should have changed between then and now, it's Ibe's. After Stranded (which afaik was his first ORG) he went and began his own series, hosted that x3 and played at least a half dozen other games. But somehow, he and my paths have never crossed since, so I just have no idea how he's grown or developed. He's a wildcard to me, but with that much experienced he should be a very competent wildcard and he was a pretty decent player in the first place. Maybe a bit too loyal and single-minded, but that might be completely different by now. Let's say Final Six, with the potential to be a surprise middle of the pack late-sprint winner.

Kim P & Rachel I don't expect will bring too much impact to the game, but Ibe & Marissa just might. Ibe is a very good communicator for one, and if you feel close to him, you feel very close to him. This could be a key cross-tribe pair come the shuffles so long as she sticks around that long. Marissa is a newish player, but not a total noob, so she should be able to keep that hope alive. Ibe & Jolanda 2.0 anyone? (wow I'm racist)


***


PLA & PsychoARB
(Kim P & Rachel / Becky & Ciera)

Ciera is the app of the new-to-me people I think I like the most? Fun and easy going on the surface, but clever bubbling away underneath. Hopefully this translates to a good game played and I think in an all-new cast she'd be a favourite to win. Here though, while I do think she'll do well, I fear she'll get outshone by someone with a more experienced head on their shoulders along the way somewhere. I will say merge though, maybe as deep as finalist if things work out for her with swaps and partners. Becky as her partner is a good thing. Or at least, it's a good thing at first. She'll learn a lot, but might get burned later for it :P Also Ciera is super hot. I forgot how much till now.

Kim is maybe the vet I'm least excited to see come back. I just don't see her even in with a shot of winning here :/ Ew that sounds harsh. It's not to say she is a bad player per se, she is probably a better gamer than all of Peter, Caryn, Ralph, Cochran(?) - but each of those brings some other kind of excitement to the table. *If* she comes in with a big point to prove, and tackles the game way differently than last time maybe I'll get excited, but if she just does the same thing again she'll just be a number in some alliance and not a mover or shaker at all. iirc, she did have some rounds where she got a bit emotional and erratic (or was that just Sarah rubbing off on her? :P ) but more of that and I'd be a happier viewer. I have the same kind of fears for her partnership with Rachel. Kinda non-consequential in the bigger picture is my fear.

***


Chan The Man & TheBammBoozlerr
(Peter & Laura / Semhar & Brad)

I am writing these way out of order, and I think reading the apps, Brad ought to have been Hayden and vice-versa. I'm not sure what to make of Brad. I do think his app is not how we'll see him actually play. So I guess let's just wait and see what he does? He seems sure of himself at least. I'm not so sure that's warranted but ready to be surprised. My advice, coming into the game with any plan is usually a bad plan :P

I am glad to see PPPeter get another run out. I fear he might not make too much of it though :| His best connection here is Caryn who isn't exactly a stellar "in". But that said, for all his novelty value he wasn't super-terrible at the game first time out. He did make some good connections after showing up late, once he got the hang of things. He could have very easily cruised to a spot in the majority alliance only that Patty & Gina made a different majority happen. So like a few others here, all he really needs to do is survive till the shuffle and then it'll be a whole new ball game.

Him & Laura oughta be lols. Brad and Sem, idk at all.

***


MaxEurchuck & Isaiah
(Ralph & Shawn / Skinny Ryan & John)

John has noob written all over his app <3 Noobier even than the other noobs somehow Still, any pal of Ralph's is a pal of mine so I am rooting for him by default. He is a bit erm, personality-less in his app I mean, I can see he's eager and interested but there's no real bite there or indication how that might translate into the game. He will be someone I think fun to watch as he gets to grips to things that most of the cast take for granted as stuff you should know. I also think he'll probably be an early enough boot unless he gets in with a group early. And being that he's so green, I don't know if he'll have the sense to get in somewhere asap. It might all have happened by the time he starts thinking about what he needs to do. :/ So he'll need to make the *right* connection early - a Vytas or a Laura who will ensure he is included long enough for him to make the first shuffle and find his feet. 50/50 on his chances of doing that and making mid-game early Jury, or being one of the first out.

Ralph <3 One of my biggest disappointments of missing out on the latter half of that Season was not seeing how Ralph's story concluded properly. I just hope he can achieve similar heights here. For all his blustering and fumbling that time, let's not forget that Ralph was *the most* popular on his tribe statistically. He is very easy to get both along with and underrate as any kind of threat. Which is a killer combo. He is always thinking too. maybe those plans aren't always good, but he's coming up with them all the same For some reason I can see Ralph's return seeing him turn to villainy here Final five.

John with Ryan the Rat - I fear this partnership could be one of or even the first broken. Ralph with Shawn should be a good pairing. Shawn has a tendency to be somewhat vanilla on his own, but with the right other people can get a little cray, and Ralph is the right person for that.

***


madhackrviper & dancecab
(Skinny Ryan & John / Ibrehem & Marissa)

Marissa is one of the newer players at ORGY (2 recent games, 2 old-school games), and while I'm usually on top of that she is one that slipped by me. So going by her app alone she sounds.. just nice? I fear maybe a little naive and someone who might get strung along a bit. I'm finding it really hard to get a read on her here. I hope she's not too vanilla I am already thinking her confessional needs special attention to ratchet up the paranoia a little emotional trauma might bring out the best in her. I fear Marissa is a pre-merge boot depending on tribe wins early.

Skinny Ryan the Rat is a joy to host. He is maybe/probably the most experienced player in the game but don't take that for a second that he is anywhere near the best player (lol sorry madhack). He has a lot of flaws and while he is aware of them and tries to correct them each game, he can very easily fall into the trap of overcompensating and going too far the other way. Example; I hosted him last month and he confessed about how much this was going to be a patient game for him. But then came a moment where patience was the worst thing you could do. Two rounds later he was out on his ear. :| Big flaw #2 that I always notice is that he is a sucker for an underdog. He just can't sit comfortable inside a power alliance. Or he just finds it easier to connect with the outliers on a tribe than the power players. And more often than not that'll bite him in the ass.

All that said he can win here. He has a ton of experience and he should be the most connected of the vets even if he doesn't see it. A lot of people, (myself included, comic nerds <3 ), have a soft spot for him. He just needs to take advantage of that. Be ruthless and own it. But I don't know if he can actually play like that. That could be a bridge too far for him. I will say early Jury.

As for their pairs, I can see Marissa/Ibe being important later so long as she can stick around. I have less hope for Ryan/John, and I think one or the other will be an early boot here.

***


Kwe$i & USuck
(Semhar & Brad / Coby & Hayden)

What are these two looking at?

Semhar's return <3 I hope she goes full villain now that she has a rep for it. Hayden's app would indicate he could be a real villain here too. I hope he can deliver on what he's promising. Most excited for him over any new-to-me player. plsdeliverplsdeliverpsldeliver I do think you should have made him Brad Culpepper, but too late now. Potentially early boot if he overplays - and his app reads like an overplayer - but fingers crossed he rides that out. Imma say 5th or 6th boot or so.

I'm as excited about Semhar as I was last time out. And now we know she has the social thing down pat. I think it being her second game might hurt her. Cochran/Ralph etc will have read her old confessionals by now (or should have) and will find it very hard to trust her. So I think she'll have an uphill battle here and no mutiny option or anything to help her out. Still, she only needs to survive two rounds before she can blend into her natural friendly outside villainess inside persona where the noobs won't know better. I hope she goes deep. Her missing out on the cut and thrust of endgame (or even merge?) last time was cruel and took away from the game. Late Jury.

Coby and Hayden - this could produce fireworks for better or worse. Sem & Brad? idk. I can see her wearing the pants but that's about all.

[Brenda Lowe]

Did I actually predict any winner in there? idt I did. This may well contradict what I just typed last post. Loose boot-order


Pre-Jury
Brad
Caryn
Peter
Hayden
Cochran
Kim P
Rachel
Coby

Jury
Shawn
Ralph
John
Ryan
Sem
Ibrehem
Laura
Becky
Vytas

Finalists
Marissa
Katie
Winner
Ciera

And a completely contradictory bet that Katie/Cochran get the talismans.

[Brenda Lowe]

Peter PMing the bots <3

[Jeff Probst]

Peter PMing the bots <3

Peter... always delivering the lulz.

[Brenda Lowe]

I keep getting distracted by the Episode threads. Here is something; as of the Brad boot, how "the chain" is looking;

Caryn Shawn Ralph John Skinny Ryan Marissa Ibrehem Rachel Kim P Ciera Becky Laura Peter Brad Semhar Hayden Coby Katie Cochran Vytas Caryn

While Becky & Sem are probably happy enough to not have the talisman target on them anymore, I wonder if Becky realizes how little connection she now has to Bracari. Laura is not exactly lighting it on fire over there. Nor are she and Peter bffs by any stretch of the imagination.

The people I see working the cross tribal bonds the hardest (and most likely to benefit from it later) are Cochran, Vytas, Katie - if that little trio manage to get on a tribe together by tonight and they are each safe for the next three rounds.

[Brenda Lowe]

(talismans)

Caryn) (Shawn Ralph) (John Ryan) (Marissa Ibrehem) (Rachel Kim P) (Ciera Becky) (Laura Peter) (Brad Semhar) (Hayden Coby) (Katie Cochran) (Vytas Caryn)

I don't see any way that Peter survives here. Which imo for Kim, is dumbdumbdumb. She has to see that that would secure her position as next boot no matter what, but Cochran has her well convinced they are tight and he is tight with Vytas, therefore, all three will survive the next round. I guess she hit it off with Vytas too which helps Good on John for finding a way to stay alive (even if it wasn't necessarily his doing). If they go on any kind of losing streak and John is at fault again - then he may find himself in trouble. Vytas & Marissa may not stand by him if he hurts them every time. But for now, it's water under the bridge. When he reads this later he can take some solace from the fact they were waaaaaaay losing that at that pace regardless of the number screw up.

Limici is the tribe that on the one hand, I hope they never lose, but on the other, I'm really curious which way they would break. In five confessionals each of them has given completely opposing views of what they'd expect to happen. I feel like only Coby is safe, no-one else is - certainly not if they had to go twice. Yet Shawn feels comfy, Ryan thinks things are looking up, Ralph feels connected to everyone, Katie believes her Coby bond is enough. No clue what happens here. Disregarding idol-finds, I feel like Katie would probably go first, and then Becky. Both would be tragic.

Tapoli I'm a little meh on. It's good that tribal lines really mean nothing over there, with both of Sem & Hayden soon to be in trouble coming from their own tribemates - but ew at those two being the ones in trouble :/ Kinda swapfucked on both fronts. They have the weekend to get their asses in gear though and there is certainly leeway in the form of turning Ibe against Caryn.

[Brenda Lowe]

(talismans)

(Ciera Becky) (Laura Peter) (Brad Semhar) (Hayden Coby) (Katie Cochran) (Vytas Caryn) (Shawn Ralph) (John Ryan) (Marissa Ibrehem) (Rachel Kim P)

Peter making me eat my words lol.

Sem is looking very lonely in this chain now. As are Becky & Peter, since Laura seems to have no motivation to work the partnerships at all

I will do a rankdown today if it kills me.

[Brenda Lowe]

20. Brad
Brad had some potential I guess? But yeah, these games are hard to play when you don't have internet :| Sounded like a sweet vacation though. I'd rather be there than here anyway

19. Ciera
Ciera also went on vacay at just the wrong time (or was that an excuse? idk). Anyways she gets the edge over Brad because her LL comments make it clear she had a much better grasp on the tribe and could have potentially done a whole lot better than he could with more time to spend. Also Marissa loved her even if she didn't quite love her back. So she was doing something right.

18. Peter
The novelty value of Peter has long worn off for me. It might re-surge if he can somehow survive on and on, that would be lols, but as of right now, I am quite ready to see Bracari lose again and he leave. He survived that round over Kim more through other people than anything he actually did himself - and then went and got himself into a nice position with that male foursome - but promptly managed to work himself right back to the bottom of the tribe somehow Maybe that was more Marissa climbing than him falling but either way, it's just not good play.

17. Laura
Laura's head just doesn't seem to be in the game at all. Is she hosting her own game now or has that not started yet? Also she's still playing heavily into character which never really works in Stranded. It does provide a few lol moments now and again - like her telling Caryn about the youngins with their slang and their crystal meth - but apart from her built-in tie with Becky, and Rachel who loves her - has she managed to connect with anyone out here at all? Shawn a little back on Bracari iirc, but really not much happening on the social front for her. Her story is finally picking up now that she's a target and she knows she is, but it might be too little too late by tonight.

16. Ryan
For someone who I am rooting for to do well, he is making it very hard to get invested in. He is here so little, and every update by him or about him seems to be about his lack of being around. Ralph is a big fan but that's it really. Coby & Becky are still hoping for that old-school bond to come good but if Limici lost, we could lose Ryan with no big impact.

15. Kim P
KimP left with a bang, but up until that it was very hard to root for her. Good work getting that sixsome together on original Limici but it was downhill from that point on and she seemed to rest on her laurels somewhat. That counter-alliance sprung up and I doubt she even knew it was more likely it would succeed than the original six had they ever been tested. Still, great exit, with the callouts and the 3-2-1. People are chuckling that she voted Cochran that night and essentially Tyson'd herself - but I don't think it matters - she would probably have left anyway. Tapoli won that night meaning a Tapolian would have split the tie - Ibe maybe or Caryn?


14. Hayden
Hayden is gone too soon. He may not have been some strategical god and certainly didn't know what to do except hope when his back was against the wall on Tapoli, but still he is easily the best of the boots so far. Very enthusiastic, very infectious. Kept himself in a good position on Bracari but couldn't find the same footing on Tapoli. I think mostly because he & Rachel just never clicked plus the whole weird pairs situation over there. Fun to watch, I would see him back some time.

13. Semhar
Sem is definitely missing something compared to last time round. Is she based in SA? That might be what is hurting her. She also seemed just leaving things to hope for last night's TC despite knowing she wasn't in a great position, and she's very lucky that Caryn changed the boot from her to Hayden. Her story is beginning to pick up now if she actually clicks with the two of Rachel & Laura. It's a slow build though. Back on LImici too, she was hardly in the thick of it. I think she'll be a late bloomer here though. If she can ride it out till merge she'll be well positioned to do some real damage.

12. Marissa
Marissa is an odd one. I will say up front I don't like her schtick here. How come every black girl in an org is automatically ghetto or a rapper? That said she is working her position well. She has been nearly-the-boot a few times already, but it's far better to be nearly booted than to be nearly saved. She seems to be maintaining a steady second-from-bottom position no matter what size the tribe - and unlike Peter - it's totally her own work keeping her there. Her & Ibe are in the running as my fave talisman pair I think. Top three for sure.

11. Shawn
Shawn is good to read. But moreso in PMs than in confessional. He is kind of eclipsed by the rest of Limici, with a large part of his story right now being wrapped up in whether they want to break him & Ralph up or not. If Limici lose it's quite likely he'll be idolled out, which would be harsh. but then again, he's spent the most time with Katie of anyone over there yet still can't figure out how to click with her socially. So that's on him I guess.

10. Rachel
Rachel is so hot and cold for me. I think we need to pepper her confessional more with questions because she only ever responds with short and snappy answers when prompted and it's kinda hard to get a good read on her game because of it. When she has a little breakout moment though they are great - she is opinionated and not afraid to rub people the wrong way. It comes off way more genuine and real than say, Caryn. Really like Rachel, but would like to hear more from her.

9. John
I have a soft spot for John derp, and if I'd done this a round or three back he'd be near the very top. He's kind of having a bit of a quiet spell right now though. But good for him to be so safe - he's probably the most safe of anyone on Bracari thanks to Cochran's schizo-ness and Vytas 'for the lols' approach. And for the least experienced player in the cast to be in that position at this point is pretty impressive. Can't wait for he & Ralph to link up fully and I'm pretty confident they will get the chance to too.

8. Ibrehem
This seems a little low for someone who is playing such a good game right now. And he is probably right to keep it calm. But there is still something missing from Ibe for me. He is a bit of a gamebot and I'd like to see him have to play with his heart on his sleeve or something? All that said he is playing a great game. He's working his partner & his friend. He's well in control of his tribe with the exception of one loose cannon/caryn. He's got a great bond with Becky to get back to later. Kinda hoping for the Laura / Sem / Rachel thing to work out just to see him shaken.

Ugh I was pretty close to finishing this too. Challenge is starting though so gonna go watch that.

Remaining order was;
Ralph
Becky
Caryn
Coby
Vytas
Cochran
Katie

I'll try finish this later, but who knows how it'll change after TC?

[Brenda Lowe]

This chain continues to fascinate me.

(talismans)

(Ciera Becky) (Laura Peter) (Brad Semhar) (Hayden Coby) (Katie Cochran) (Vytas Caryn) (Shawn Ralph) (John Ryan) (Marissa Ibrehem) (Rachel Kim P)

[Brenda Lowe]

Okay Imma drop this in here because this thread is weak. Merge happens tonight, and if I don't get this down on paper today it'll never be done. Some merge dynamic & winner predictions. Let's see here;



Let's start with Becky.

I don't think she's quite as threatening as we've been giving her credit for. Don't get me wrong, she is a big threat to win and it's not just the hosts thinking that - but in this game so far? Not really. She's getting that label more for the player she is outside of this game than anything specific she's done here yet. But that really comes down to her only having to go to TC the once so far, and for a unanimous boot at that. Merge changes a lot of things, but primarily the big fact that you go to TC every damn round and are always vulnerable unless you are immune (yes derp that is super obvious, but people forget the massiveness of that change). So from here on out, we are going to see a different Becky for sure. She just can't afford to be casual at all or that "threat" tag will be the death of her.

Becky is bound to (continue to) be a central character here. On original Limici she was kinda straddling the two main alliances although the second one didn't really trust her and never got to see where her true allegiances lay.On NuLimici she once again found herself as the swing between two sides although the difference here is that Ralph & Shawn don't doubt her for a second - that will serve her well.

As of right now it looks like Bracari & Limici will hook up to target Tapoli initially but that just can't last long. Sooner or later people are going to be looking at every NuLimici player and saying we can't let X get to the end with so many other NuLimici on the Jury, and as soon as that happens, Becky is first in the firing line. She has no Laura now, she has no Ciera for a long time, and she's been severely lacking on the benefits of cross-tribal info the way Katie / Vytas / Ralph / Ibe etc have all been able to get. On the one hand that will allow her be a free agent and less threatening but on the other, that is so many less bonds set up for the merge.

Some little things about Becky; She says Ibe is dead to her - or at least he should be once she gets the full story of Laura cos it's exactly what she feared and worse ("Becky who?" ) but I honestly can't see that lasting and it'll be water under the bridge in a round or two, while she'll also use it as a reason to distance herself from Tapoli in the eyes of Limici & Bracari. Thing number two that she doesn't know is coming is that she'll soon find out Katie & Coby are friends. that little nugget is known to Coch & Vytas (& Marissa?) so it won't stay under wraps for long. I love her & Katie's odd gurls pairing but Katie would want to reveal Coby as her friend to Becky the minute the merge hits or that will cause a serious dent in that relationship.

I think Becky and Vytas aren't going to gel. Their styles are too different. She will probably click with Marissa pretty well though. Ibe will be back tight with her soon. Hopefully she and Katie can stay the course. Can Becky win? Absolutely. If she gets to the F2 she will win. But keeping the target off herself is the trick. It can be done by manuvering around the three tribes targeting each other and using the partnerships against each other but it's a tall tall order to pull it off. I think more likely, we'll see her end up on early to mid Jury for just being too much of a threat.

Prediction: 6th.

[Brenda Lowe]

Vytas is the other person that pre-game stuck out as an obvious winner. But can he win now?

Going on his pre-merge I find it really hard to see any way that he does. He is still amazing. A huge character and I think Probst won't mind me saying already a ~Legend~ , but I just don't see any way that he wins here. Either he gets taken out for being a threat, or he just implodes somewhere along the way. Dude is on the verge of a mental breakdown and changes his mind every other round about what he even wants. Who can ally with that for any amount of time? Add to that he is going to be punching around the top of any speed challenges, has the same underdog story as Marissa with 7/9 TCs attended, and people would be mad to let him get anywhere near the endgame - or just won't want to. Even people close to him like Cochran or Marissa can't trust him anymore.

Now what could work out quite well for him is early allies that didn't actually have to witness his descent into madness. The likes of Katie mostly, but also Rachel and Shawn will just have distant memories of how solid Vytas was compared to the rest of Bracari and that he must be good cos he is still around. That or link-ups with new people. I said with Becky I feel like they won't really gel (maybe they will try extra hard for Katie's benefit, but I don't see it as a natural fit). Him & Ibe? Maybe actually - especially after Ibe saved his ass that time. I actually think he & Ralph will get on well for some reason? Maybe just cos everyone gets on with Ralph. Him and Coby? I don't see it. Him and Caryn will be fun to watch happen. She says she is going to tear him down come merge but even the slightest scratch of her surface and it's clear she will shelve that to get the talismans if it's do-able.

What is also good for Vytas is the jump to a 12-man tribe. I mean, it's good for all of Bracari since they've been at TC every round anyway. But I think it's a huge deal for Vytas to have some of that pressure relieved and to get some legroom. Is it even possible for Vytas to relax and play a little quieter at this point though? I kind of don't think so. So while Imma write off his chances of winning, he can still be a huge character for a few more rounds yet. That aggressive style can really fuck up some people's plans. Plus he has an idol (everyone will know that by tonight though guaranteed), and he is just a few select boots away from getting a talisman too. he could do some real damage and shape the endgame.

What is weird about Vytas' chances of getting to the end / winning is that I would personally take him in a heartbeat. Goat is not the right word, but kind of as a goat. Someone who you can sit beside and say "this aggressive flip-floppy mofo had to be steered by me to get here, anyone really think he could have managed this much on his own? No? Vote4mekthnx" So I wonder if anyone else will start thinking along those lines further down the road. but then he gets there and it's Penny all over again and he could pull out a win. The chances of this all happening are so slim, it woud be easier for him to win every challenge and interspice that with idols up to F5, then he is just three comps away from F2.

Far more likely he gets all up in people's these next two rounds and maybe squeaks by on an idol in one of them, then gets the chop as soon as Tapoli take a hit or two and only Ibe is left.

Prediction: 9th.

[Brenda Lowe]

Let's continue tribe-hopping with Rachel, because she certainly will be tribe-hopping soon

This girl is so ready to cut and run on Tapoli it's promises to be amazing. I don't think anyone (even on three man Bracari) is praying so hard right now for the merge to hit. She kinda has been getting passed over in the host blogs because she's a bit of a bit-part character and Taploi is frankly the least exciting of the three tribes, but she's a real jewel in the rough this one, and her fierceness and bitterness come across as more real than any amount of Caryn's. Can she win? I rate her chances at less than nil right now. But much like Vytas, she is primed to be a real wildcard come merge that will ruin all the best laid plans of the more level-headed social players.

I expect she is going to be the catalyst for a Tapoli boot at merge. The other tribes will see the divide and will be quite happy to let Tapoli devour itself before worrying about anything else for the immediate future. I fear for Sem to take the brunt of this mostly, but with the talismans accounted for, people may well look to booting Ibe or Caryn instead. I hope she runs right to Becky to tattle on Ibe for drama's sakes.

I have hosted Rachel elsewhere before, but I've never seen her be this raw. I'm kinda delighted for her and I find myself checking her PMs a lot. Right now they are stale, but come merge that should change drastically. I imagine her & Vytas are going to click better now than they did before. Her and Shawn were always close so that would be a potential power core we've not really imagined. Her / Shawn / Ralph + one or two more? Could easily happen as one of those mid-game alliances of convenience where they all just want something that keeps them connected and safe from the big names. Hell that could be an F3 right there.

Can she win though? I really don't think she can. Not without some huge moves and a upswing in her story. However, she can go really deep her - so long as she survives the first two rounds of merge. She will need to be on her game and needs to get Ibe out asap. Do that and she will go deep enough to get to a point where no-one is afraid of going to the end with her cos Tapoli Jurors aren't going to be some bloc in her corner. I could really see her plus a whole other tribe making up F4.

Imma predict she doesn't do that though. Ibe manages to socialise his way into Becky's good books or even uses his idol successfully and we see her leave sooner instead of later.

Prediction: 11th

[Brenda Lowe]

Moving on to Shawn because I feel like his and Rachel's fates are intertwined somewhat. Shawn is dA too I think? (NOT IMPLYING ANYTHING JEEZ) just that the've gelled well and will continue to do so.

I guess the biggest thing right now about Shawn is he isn't all that aware about how close he has been to being the Limici boot for quite some time now If they lost early, I think he'd have left. He put in enough work and enough time passed that by the time they did, Ryan was more of a consensus. Once he left though, Shawn is back on the bottom and he & Ralph fully believe Becky is with them to boot Katie. Becky has never fully said, but it's kinda obvious that if push came to shove it is Shawn that would have been shoved. So he needs this merge as much as Rachel, he is just less aware of it. Even if that's not true - and Becky did try convince Coby that a Katie boot might have to happen - so even if Becky went with them, she woulda told Coby, Coby woulda told Katie, and Katie woulda idolled Shawn out :\

I'd need to go back to early Bracari confessionals & PMs to remind myself just how close he and Rachel were but iirc, they were each other's #1 or at least pretty close while all Vytas / Katie / Marissa / Hayden (/ John) kinda drifted toward each other but just included these two. So, with half of Limici ready to cut him as soon as they lose, and no real super-tight connection with Vytas / Marissa you can see why I think his & Rachel's games are going to revolve around each other. I imagine they'll either both leave pretty early, or they both stick around. These two to leave within two boots of each other.

He has one big thing that Rachel does not though and that is Ralph. These two are the most successful talisman partnership I think (although I doubt they will score them in the end, with one or the other getting taken out to leave them to another set). Ralph loves Shawn. Ralph has no idea everyone is gonna boot Shawn. And it's very hard to bring yourself to blindside Ralph even if it's not Ralph actually leaving.

He also has the best kept secret in the game going for him - in that he is Caryn's friend. Caryn told people early that hers was Brad. Which no-one can confirm or deny now that Peter is out. If they figured that out between them Shawn could start telling people his was Peter and hers was Brad and that would be a masterstroke. idk if they'll see that though. For all Rachel's fury at Tapoli she kinda lets Caryn off the hook compared to the other two. Now I'm not saying that a Caryn/Shawn/Rachel alliance is gonna spring up, but Shawn is the one NuLimici member that would likely have more Tapoli leanings than Bracari ones when it comes to a team-up. But he also has less influence than Katie/Becky so idk what that is worth.

Also just as an aside I am finding it more and more hilarious every time he claims to be boss at challenges and then flops. I hope that happens all game long and somehow he either wins one late at a crucial point or fucks one up that sends himself out It would be such a beautiful little side-arc.

Can he win? Sure he can. His game is not super impressive so far and kinda quiet and a lot of things have happened he is in the dark about, but he has his secrets too. I think he'd need to get to the end with some strikingly unimpressive player to pull it off. But that's the kind of people he's close too. Ralph would steamroll him, but him and Caryn or him and Rachel or him and someone like Sem or Marissa and he could sneak the win here.

Buuuuut Imma predict otherwise. Him and Rachel within two boots of each other? K, let's go with that.

Prediction: 10th

[Brenda Lowe]

lol I need to map this out. What have I said so far;

12th
11th Rachel
10th Shawn
9th Vytas
8th
7th
6th Becky

[Brenda Lowe]

Okay, let's try do boot orderish here. Which unfortunately for her, means I fear for Caryn's longevity here.

See here is the thing. We talked about who might win on the host Skype last night and people lolled at Caryn's chances. But honestly, if FTC was on right this minute, I would vote for her before any of Tapoli or Bracari and about half of Limici. She has been really good here. And at first it was kinda, well expectations were so low that anything she could do right would be impressive. But the more she plays, the more genuinely impressive she has been. Back on Limici, she was pretty comfortable in a majority alliance while just amusing herself with trolling. Now that alliance may not have lasted too long if they'd ever had to visit a TC (read: KimP woulda left and that alliance woulda fallen at the first) but it wouldn't have been Caryn leaving. Then onto Tapoli, sure Ibe is the figurehead leader here and probably putting in more work (and safer) but who is getting what she wants the most? Caryn. First boot shoulda been Sem until Caryn made it be Hayden. Caryn was pushing the follow-up target from Sem onto Laura long before Ibe was playing catch-up. It's so fucking weird and because it's Caryn, no-one in the game can see it. In fact it's pretty hard to even see as a host knowing it is her. It's very easy to write off as just lucky breaks but Caryn is getting what she wants here.

But that is also gonna be her downfall I fear. People write her off cos it's just crazy Caryn. And what I'm thinking will happen next here is that Tapoli get targeted, and the talisman partnerships get targeted, and Ibe has an idol and better connections for the most part which means people can put an easy target on Caryn and there's not many people will fight that except Shawn and possibly Vytas. But Vytas could just as soon say fuck it, she's not worth the talismans after all the grief before. And Shawn is not exactly super influential with the masses.

The other way it could go is that Caryn avoids the initial target because, well it's only Caryn I mean, it's worked so far for her right? She could ride that to mid-game, maybe even snag a talisman along the way and get toward endgame where she has got to be a tempting prospect for anyone to go to the end with. So if she did get to the end could she win? No. No she can't lol. Like I said, I would vote for her over 3/4s of the cast right now. but she will tank an FTC for a start. With a speech along the lines of "I used my abrasive personality to fly utr right in front of everyone's noses while at the same time putting my foot down at crucial points to ensure things went my way" she could win. But she is incapable of making that speech.

As for connections she has.. Ibe & Shawn? Sem a little I guess. And maybe Ralph/Coby/Becky find a hole for her in their plans somehow. idk though, I just see her being isolated from the herd very quickly and becoming a victim of talisman targeting very soon.

Prediction: 12th

(Can I just say that would be horrible because a Jury with Caryn is about ten times more hilarious and horrible as one without)

[Brenda Lowe]

Okay, I have my boot order in my head now so I don't need to stick to it here. Let's just look at who and where Cochran is connected and his chances yaknow?



Cochran is kinda nuts ngl I am enjoying him this time around x1000 times more yaknow? Mis-sending a PM to the entire tribe and even all the bots the exact same night as misvoting and keeping Vytas in the game You couldn't write this stuff yknow? Also he says yknow about four times per PM but I'll knock that off before it gets old. (yaknow?) And why was he even targeting Vytas in the first place? I read every confessional and PM over at that board and I still have no idea. I think he just wants to make a big move he can lay claim to later, but like, doing that in Round four for the sake of it? idt that's wise, especially not when it's your partner and you two could just run the tribe between you. But it is great to watch lol.

What Cochran has more than anyone else (except Katie) is connections everywhere. If he can keep his head on straight when the merge hits and actually utilise these to his benefit instead of going cray-cray he could be golden right through to the endgame. But going on what we've seen so far the chances of him actually getting his ducks in a row is a huge IF. Especially with Vytas so close to him and a bit psycho. But let's see here;

-He's Vytas' wingman
-He & Marissa are close enough that if Bracari went to TC tonight, I would fancy them booting Vy.
-He's Katie's talisman partner
-Coby has lots of time for him & there is a potential foursome there between the pairs of Coby/Katie/Vytas/Cochran
-Ralph loves him
-Ralph tied to Shawn so by extension..
-Ibe & Becky quite like him

That only really leaves Sem / Caryn / Rachel not in his immediate ties and as I've explained above, I think we are gonna lose at least some of those three pretty soon after merge. So Cochran gets to Final 9 or so with a whole ton of people he has lots of ties with and no real enemies except people looking to break a partnership. Talking to most of the singles, Cochran/Katie to get the talismans wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen and I think all three of the others will be targeted first. So far so great - *IF* he can keep his cool and not have another night where he derails.

Buuuuuut. It's only a matter of time before that happens lol His other big drawback is that rumour has it, he and Vytas are "running Bracari". Alol if only they knew. Running it into the ground maybe So the closer he gets to the end, the more people are going to start looking at the fairytale arc of someone who walked out of that carcrash alive and still with both hands on the steering wheel and start thinking of how that guy can't be allowed get to the endgame. He sucks at challenges which is strangely a bonus for him and might help him shirk the target that Vytas cannot.

Can he win? Yes he can. He has all the right connections to set himself up into a position where he can have an endgame that suits him more than anyone else. He needs to be patient with that big move of his and wait till F7 or so before he starts cutting throats and gets his pieces into place though. Will he win? I don't think so. He'll be long off the tracks before FTC yaknow?

Prediction: 5th

[Brenda Lowe]

Let's talk the most adorable man in the cast.



Ralph of course.

I am under Ashley's order to definitely not (no do) post this everywhere and it's a good set-up; Ralph's final PM to John before John got the boot;

hey but guess what
evenif you lose
yourstillmynumberone
andwhocaresaboutotherpeople
otherpeoplearelame

It is genuinely adorable. As is Ralph. And the thing with Ralph is that everyone thinks Ralph is adorable and everyone thinks they are probably closer to Ralph than anyone else has managed. By the time the merge is a round or two old every single player is gonna think they are in Ralph's top three which ofc isn't possible :P For all the talk of booting Shawn over on Limici the biggest drawback people seem to fear is that they don't want to hurt/offend Ralph. I mean, "Sod Shawn, let's send him to the LL, but Ralph? God we can't hurt Ralph" is not a million miles away from their reasoning over there. Add to that Cochran's season bond, Sem's admittedly more distant Season bond, Caryn thinking he's putty. Ibe not so much maybe.
As for the people
he's yet to meet
with his
poetic
and hypnotic
lyrical stylings
I kind of think he and Vytas will gel really well for some reason? Vytas should appreciate Ralph's openness and might well poke a little fun at him but I kinda think they'll click. With Rachel he's that shoulder to cry on. He seems to think Marissa is a future ally (I have no idea why lol - via Cochran? idk).

So Ralph is not quite as connected as Cochran or Katie. Yet. But I think he will be very soon. His game did take a big blow with John leaving, and that fucking PM, it's so sad But less of a target on him. Cos god knows he's gonna have one soon due to talismans.

Now here is the best thing about Ralph's game and his chances to win. He is not that nice Ofc he is a nice guy obviously. But he is ready to cut some throats if he has to. He is ready to cut all the throats if he has to. To be that close with John and still to try goad him into throwing for his own safety's sake shows what exactly he could be willing to do if someone like Katie or whoever he is close with gets in his way. I'm not sure he can be a strategical mastermind organising moves and the like, but what he does have is an openness with everyone and a willingness to work with anyone and that will get him far here. And that cutthroatness is so hidden beneath all the nice guy stuff he could be a helluva liar if he needs to be. They'd never see it coming.

Can he win? Absolutely. Get to the F2 and I honestly don't think even Becky could beat Ralph.

However. People would be crazy to let him get to the end and everyone knows that much. And while his suckiness at challenges means he'll glide by as not a priority for a while it also means that when people start wondering if he should be a priority I don't think he has it in him to pull out a clutch challenge win at the right time.

So Imma say that's pretty much how it'll go for Ralph. Glides by a little while cos no-one wants to be the guy to put down Old Yeller. But it's going to have to be done sooner or later. Maybe sooner if Shawn is in a better position.

Prediction: 7th

[Mia Galeotalanza]

this is a blog not a cast reveal

[Brenda Lowe]

Pfft. Imma get this done before bed and before I read a single merge PM.

Also my free time takes a serious hit tomorrow, so get the good ones in while we can.

[Brenda Lowe]

My only gripe with Ibrehem is that right now he's become a bit of a gamebot. But hats off to the lad, it's a good game he's played and like sooooooooo much better and more flexible than his Costa Rica showing. I just wish there was a touch more emotion or that he was under a bit more pressure somehow. If Tapoli do take a hit or two maybe we'll see how he performs. And he has that idol. For some reason, I think his idol is going to be a lot more important sooner than Katies will be. Vytas' idk, everyone will know about that and he'll blow it probs while he's not even the target. Or he'll win enough immunities that he'll not need it for a few rounds.

***

So this isn't getting finished. This was my layout;

12th Caryn
11th Rachel
10th Shawn
9th Vytas
8th ~Ibrehem
7th Ralph
6th Becky
5th Cochran
4th ~Katie
3rd ~Marissa
2nd ~Semhar
1st ~Coby